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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."